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Stal Brzeg vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Stal Brzeg
Stal Brzeg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
4/9/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stal Brzeg53%
×Draw22%
Gać Oława25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Brzeg
2.00
Gać Oława
1.32

Stal Brzeg creates 52% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

creates per match

Stal Brzeg
1.43
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Stal Brzeg
1.65
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Stal Brzeg+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Brzeg ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Stal Brzeg or draw
75%
Stal Brzeg or Gać Oława
78%
Draw or Gać Oława
47%

Winning margin

Stal Brzeg wins by 2+
31%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stal Brzeg 1+ goals
86%
Stal Brzeg 2+ goals
59%
Stal Brzeg 3+ goals
32%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
73%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
38%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)
68%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Brzeg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Brzeg attack 1.43 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.00

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stal Brzeg scores more
53%
level
22%
Gać Oława scores more
25%

Stal Brzeg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stal Brzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Stal Brzeg 2–0 Gać Oława

Stal Brzeg beat Gać Oława 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Brzeg.