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Gać Oława vs Stal Brzeg — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
2 – 2
Stal Brzeg
Stal Brzeg
9/4/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława34%
×Draw23%
Stal Brzeg44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.53
Stal Brzeg
1.77

Stal Brzeg creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Stal Brzeg
1.30

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Stal Brzeg
1.77

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Stal Brzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
56%
Gać Oława or Stal Brzeg
77%
Draw or Stal Brzeg
66%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
16%
Stal Brzeg wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
78%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
45%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
20%
Stal Brzeg 1+ goals
83%
Stal Brzeg 2+ goals
53%
Stal Brzeg 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
44%
Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Stal Brzeg away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.53

Stal Brzeg attack 1.30 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gać Oława scores more
34%
level
23%
Stal Brzeg scores more
44%

Stal Brzeg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stal Brzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gać Oława vs Stal Brzeg

Gać Oława and Stal Brzeg drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.