Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stal Brzeg vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Stal Brzeg
Stal Brzeg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
M. Podgorski 88'
8/6/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stal Brzeg40%
×Draw25%
Chrobry Głogów II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Brzeg
1.45
Chrobry Głogów II
1.32

Stal Brzeg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stal Brzeg
1.43
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Stal Brzeg
1.65
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Stal Brzeg+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Brzeg ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stal Brzeg or draw
66%
Stal Brzeg or Chrobry Głogów II
75%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
60%

Winning margin

Stal Brzeg wins by 2+
19%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stal Brzeg 1+ goals
77%
Stal Brzeg 2+ goals
42%
Stal Brzeg 3+ goals
18%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
73%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
38%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)
54%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Brzeg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Brzeg attack 1.43 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stal Brzeg scores more
40%
level
25%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
34%

Stal Brzeg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stal Brzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
M. Podgorski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Brzeg vs Chrobry Głogów II

Stal Brzeg beat Chrobry Głogów II 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 6, 2022.

Goals: M. Podgorski (88').

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Brzeg.