Chrobry Głogów II 4–5 Stal Brzeg: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów II

FT

4 – 5

HT: 2 – 1

Stal Brzeg

A. Marciniak 80', 47'

M. Ozimek 20'

P. Mucha 7' (pen)

M. Podgorski 90'

M. Wdowiak 88'

D. Bronislawski 65', 39' (pen)

J. Czajkowski 53'

3/5/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II32%

×Draw22%

Stal Brzeg46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry Głogów IIExpected goals in this matchStal Brzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.98

Chrobry Głogów II

1.62

Stal Brzeg

1.98

Stal Brzeg creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

1.47

creates per match

1.30

2.65

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II

1.47

Stal Brzeg

1.30

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II

2.65

Stal Brzeg

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Stal Brzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw

54%

Chrobry Głogów II or Stal Brzeg

78%

Draw or Stal Brzeg

68%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+

15%

Stal Brzeg wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals

80%

Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals

48%

Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals

22%

Stal Brzeg 1+ goals

86%

Stal Brzeg 2+ goals

59%

Stal Brzeg 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)

41%

Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Stal Brzeg away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.62

Stal Brzeg attack 1.30 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more

32%

level

22%

Stal Brzeg scores more

46%

Stal Brzeg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stal Brzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

P. MuchaPenalty

20'

M. Ozimek

39'

D. BronislawskiPenalty

47'

A. Marciniak

53'

J. Czajkowski

65'

D. Bronislawski

80'

A. Marciniak

88'

M. Jaszczyk

88'

M. Wdowiak

90'

M. Podgorski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff