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Stadlau vs Rapid Wien II — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Stadlau
Stadlau
FT
2 – 2
Rapid Wien II
Rapid Wien II
10/27/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 13OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stadlau30%
×Draw23%
Rapid Wien II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadlau
1.39
Rapid Wien II
1.82

Rapid Wien II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 70 away

creates per match

Stadlau
1.50
Rapid Wien II
1.83

allows per match

Stadlau
1.81
Rapid Wien II
1.27

finishing

Stadlau+0.00on par
Rapid Wien II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadlau ↓

Rapid Wien II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Stadlau or draw
52%
Stadlau or Rapid Wien II
77%
Draw or Rapid Wien II
70%

Winning margin

Stadlau wins by 2+
13%
Rapid Wien II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Stadlau 1+ goals
75%
Stadlau 2+ goals
40%
Stadlau 3+ goals
16%
Rapid Wien II 1+ goals
84%
Rapid Wien II 2+ goals
54%
Rapid Wien II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Stadlau (draw refunded)
38%
Rapid Wien II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadlau at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Rapid Wien II away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadlau attack 1.50 + Rapid Wien II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rapid Wien II attack 1.83 + Stadlau defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stadlau scores more
30%
level
23%
Rapid Wien II scores more
48%

Rapid Wien II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rapid Wien II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stadlau vs Rapid Wien II

Stadlau and Rapid Wien II drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau (Wien).