Rapid Wien II 2–1 Stadlau: Result & Stats

Rapid Wien II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stadlau

10/29/2017

Regionalliga - Ost · Round 15Trainingsgelände Allianz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rapid Wien II66%

×Draw18%

Stadlau15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapid Wien IIExpected goals in this matchStadlau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.05

Rapid Wien II

2.37

Stadlau

1.05

Rapid Wien II creates 126% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 18 away

1.96

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Rapid Wien II

1.96

Stadlau

1.00

allows per match

Rapid Wien II

1.10

Stadlau

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid Wien II+0.00on par

Stadlau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Wien II ↓

Stadlau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rapid Wien II or draw

85%

Rapid Wien II or Stadlau

82%

Draw or Stadlau

34%

Winning margin

Rapid Wien II wins by 2+

44%

Stadlau wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rapid Wien II 1+ goals

91%

Rapid Wien II 2+ goals

68%

Rapid Wien II 3+ goals

42%

Stadlau 1+ goals

65%

Stadlau 2+ goals

28%

Stadlau 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rapid Wien II (draw refunded)

81%

Stadlau (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Wien II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Stadlau away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Wien II attack 1.96 + Stadlau defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.37

Stadlau attack 1.00 + Rapid Wien II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rapid Wien II scores more

66%

level

18%

Stadlau scores more

15%

Rapid Wien II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rapid Wien II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff