Stadl-Paura 0–5 Bad Gleichenberg: Result & Stats

Stadl-Paura

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Bad Gleichenberg

8/14/2021

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 5Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Stadl-Paura32%

×Draw21%

Bad Gleichenberg47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stadl-PauraExpected goals in this matchBad Gleichenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.15

Stadl-Paura

1.75

Bad Gleichenberg

2.15

Bad Gleichenberg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 75 away

1.45

creates per match

1.75

2.55

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Stadl-Paura

1.45

Bad Gleichenberg

1.75

allows per match

Stadl-Paura

2.55

Bad Gleichenberg

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw

53%

Stadl-Paura or Bad Gleichenberg

79%

Draw or Bad Gleichenberg

68%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+

16%

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals

83%

Stadl-Paura 2+ goals

52%

Stadl-Paura 3+ goals

25%

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

88%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

63%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)

40%

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.55 · 47 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 1.45 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Stadl-Paura defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more

32%

level

21%

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

47%

Bad Gleichenberg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff