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Bad Gleichenberg vs Stadl-Paura — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
10/9/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 9Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg72%
×Draw15%
Stadl-Paura13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Gleichenberg
3.02
Stadl-Paura
1.27

Bad Gleichenberg creates 138% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg
2.39
Stadl-Paura
0.91

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg
1.62
Stadl-Paura
3.64

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par
Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Stadl-Paura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw
87%
Bad Gleichenberg or Stadl-Paura
85%
Draw or Stadl-Paura
28%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
52%
Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
95%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
80%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
57%
Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
72%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
36%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
84%
Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Stadl-Paura defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 3.02

Stadl-Paura attack 0.91 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more
72%
level
15%
Stadl-Paura scores more
13%

Bad Gleichenberg at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bad Gleichenberg vs Stadl-Paura

Bad Gleichenberg beat Stadl-Paura 2-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 9, 2020.

The match was played at Bad Gleichenberg Arena in Bad Gleichenberg.