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Stadeln vs Coburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Stadeln
Stadeln
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Coburg
Coburg
4/21/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 20Sportanlage FSV Stadeln

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stadeln46%
×Draw21%
Coburg33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadeln
2.15
Coburg
1.79

Stadeln creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stadeln
1.94
Coburg
1.53

allows per match

Stadeln
2.06
Coburg
2.35

finishing

Stadeln+0.00on par
Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadeln ↓

Coburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Stadeln or draw
67%
Stadeln or Coburg
79%
Draw or Coburg
54%

Winning margin

Stadeln wins by 2+
27%
Coburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stadeln 1+ goals
88%
Stadeln 2+ goals
63%
Stadeln 3+ goals
36%
Coburg 1+ goals
83%
Coburg 2+ goals
53%
Coburg 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Stadeln (draw refunded)
59%
Coburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadeln at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadeln attack 1.94 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.15

Coburg attack 1.53 + Stadeln defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stadeln scores more
46%
level
21%
Coburg scores more
33%

Stadeln at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stadeln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Stadeln 3–5 Coburg

Coburg beat Stadeln 5-3 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 21, 2026.

The match was played at Sportanlage FSV Stadeln in Fürth.