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Coburg vs Stadeln — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Coburg
Coburg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Stadeln
Stadeln
M. Celahmetovic 90'
M. Tranziska 64' (OG)
L. Siefert 58'
8/1/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 3Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Coburg39%
×Draw22%
Stadeln39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coburg
1.75
Stadeln
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Coburg
1.38
Stadeln
0.88

allows per match

Coburg
2.65
Stadeln
2.12

finishing

Coburg+0.00on par
Stadeln+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coburg ↓

Stadeln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Coburg or draw
61%
Coburg or Stadeln
78%
Draw or Stadeln
61%

Winning margin

Coburg wins by 2+
20%
Stadeln wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Coburg 1+ goals
83%
Coburg 2+ goals
52%
Coburg 3+ goals
25%
Stadeln 1+ goals
83%
Stadeln 2+ goals
52%
Stadeln 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Coburg (draw refunded)
50%
Stadeln (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 34 matches

Stadeln away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coburg attack 1.38 + Stadeln defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Stadeln attack 0.88 + Coburg defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Coburg scores more
39%
level
22%
Stadeln scores more
39%

Coburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
L. Siefert
64'
M. TranziskaOwn goal
90'
M. Celahmetovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Coburg 0–3 Stadeln

Stadeln beat Coburg 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 1, 2025.

Goals: L. Siefert (58'), M. Tranziska (64' o.g.), M. Celahmetovic (90').

The match was played at Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion in Coburg.