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Stade Tunisien vs Radès — Ligue 2 2020

Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radès
Radès
H. Khadraoui 88'
S. Kdida 85'
H. Jouini 54'
2/20/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade Chedly-Zouiten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stade Tunisien55%
×Draw27%
Radès18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Tunisien
1.46
Radès
0.72

Stade Tunisien creates 103% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 47 away

creates per match

Stade Tunisien
1.29
Radès
0.74

allows per match

Stade Tunisien
0.71
Radès
1.62

finishing

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par
Radès+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Tunisien ↓

Radès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stade Tunisien or draw
82%
Stade Tunisien or Radès
73%
Draw or Radès
45%

Winning margin

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
28%
Radès wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
77%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
43%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
18%
Radès 1+ goals
51%
Radès 2+ goals
16%
Radès 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
75%
Radès (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Tunisien at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Radès away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Tunisien attack 1.29 + Radès defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Radès attack 0.74 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stade Tunisien scores more
55%
level
27%
Radès scores more
18%

Stade Tunisien at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
H. Jouini
85'
S. Kdida
88'
H. Khadraoui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Stade Tunisien 2–1 Radès

Stade Tunisien beat Radès 2-1 in Ligue 2 on February 20, 2022.

Goals: H. Jouini (54'), S. Kdida (85'), H. Khadraoui (88').

The match was played at Stade Chedly-Zouiten in Tunis.