Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radès vs Stade Tunisien — Ligue 2 2020

Radès
Radès
FT
1 – 5
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
M. Ayari 77'
H. Khadraoui 81'
S. Laamari 74'
K. Aouadhi 71', 36'
A. Amri 25'
11/20/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Radès24%
×Draw30%
Stade Tunisien46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radès
0.77
Stade Tunisien
1.18

Stade Tunisien creates 53% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 8 away

creates per match

Radès
1.04
Stade Tunisien
1.13

allows per match

Radès
1.23
Stade Tunisien
0.50

finishing

Radès+0.00on par
Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radès ↓

Stade Tunisien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Radès or draw
54%
Radès or Stade Tunisien
70%
Draw or Stade Tunisien
76%

Winning margin

Radès wins by 2+
7%
Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Radès 1+ goals
54%
Radès 2+ goals
18%
Radès 3+ goals
4%
Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
69%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
33%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Radès (draw refunded)
35%
Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radès at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radès attack 1.04 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.77

Stade Tunisien attack 1.13 + Radès defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radès scores more
24%
level
30%
Stade Tunisien scores more
46%

Stade Tunisien at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
A. Amri
36'
K. Aouadhi
71'
K. Aouadhi
74'
S. Laamari
77'
M. Ayari
81'
H. Khadraoui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Radès 1–5 Stade Tunisien

Stade Tunisien beat Radès 5-1 in Ligue 2 on November 20, 2021.

Goals: A. Amri (25'), K. Aouadhi (36', 71'), S. Laamari (74'), M. Ayari (77'), H. Khadraoui (81').

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès in Radès.