Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stade Tunisien vs Kalaâ Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
FT
2 – 1
Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
K. Aouadhi 67' (pen), 40'
E. Letaief 80'
11/27/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade Municipal d'Ariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stade Tunisien54%
×Draw28%
Kalaâ Sport19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Tunisien
1.40
Kalaâ Sport
0.70

Stade Tunisien creates 100% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 61 away

creates per match

Stade Tunisien
1.29
Kalaâ Sport
0.70

allows per match

Stade Tunisien
0.71
Kalaâ Sport
1.51

finishing

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par
Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Tunisien ↓

Kalaâ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Stade Tunisien or draw
81%
Stade Tunisien or Kalaâ Sport
72%
Draw or Kalaâ Sport
46%

Winning margin

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
27%
Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
75%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
41%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
17%
Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
50%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
16%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
74%
Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Tunisien at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Tunisien attack 1.29 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stade Tunisien scores more
54%
level
28%
Kalaâ Sport scores more
19%

Stade Tunisien at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
K. Aouadhi
67'
K. AouadhiPenalty
80'
E. Letaief

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Tunisien vs Kalaâ Sport

Stade Tunisien beat Kalaâ Sport 2-1 in Ligue 2 on November 27, 2021.

Goals: K. Aouadhi (40', 67' pen), E. Letaief (80').

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Ariana in Ariana.