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Kalaâ Sport vs Stade Tunisien — Ligue 2 2020

Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
S. Zouari 87'
2/27/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kalaâ Sport29%
×Draw32%
Stade Tunisien39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalaâ Sport
0.85
Stade Tunisien
1.03

Stade Tunisien creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kalaâ Sport
1.20
Stade Tunisien
1.13

allows per match

Kalaâ Sport
0.93
Stade Tunisien
0.50

finishing

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par
Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalaâ Sport ↓

Stade Tunisien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kalaâ Sport or draw
61%
Kalaâ Sport or Stade Tunisien
68%
Draw or Stade Tunisien
71%

Winning margin

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
10%
Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
57%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
21%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
5%
Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
64%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
28%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
43%
Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalaâ Sport at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalaâ Sport attack 1.20 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Stade Tunisien attack 1.13 + Kalaâ Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kalaâ Sport scores more
29%
level
32%
Stade Tunisien scores more
39%

Stade Tunisien at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

87'
S. Zouari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalaâ Sport vs Stade Tunisien

Kalaâ Sport beat Stade Tunisien 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 27, 2022.

Goals: S. Zouari (87').

The match was played at Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira in Kalâa Seghira.