Stade Tunisien vs ES Metlaoui — League #202 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Stade Tunisien53%
ES Metlaoui17%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Stade Tunisien creates 115% more chances
Season form · 61 home / 37 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under71
- Over29
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No68
- Yes32
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Stade Tunisien ↓
Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Stade Tunisien at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.62 · 61 matches
ES Metlaoui away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Stade Tunisien attack 1.16 + ES Metlaoui defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27
ES Metlaoui attack 0.57 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.59
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Stade Tunisien at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
ES Sahel
ES Zarzis
Club Africain
CS Sfaxien
US Monastirienne
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
ES TunisES Metlaoui
JS Kairouanaise
Olympique Béja
AS SolimanStade Tunisien
US Ben Guerdane
AS Gabes
CA Bizertin
AS MarsaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Stade Tunisien host ES Metlaoui on Thursday, 26 September 2024 at 14:30. The match is part of the League #202 2026/2027 season.
League #202: Stade Tunisien 1–0 ES Metlaoui
Stade Tunisien beat ES Metlaoui 1-0 in League #202 on September 26, 2024.
Goals: Y. Oumarou (37').
The match was played at Stade Hédi-Enneifer in Le Bardo.