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ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien — League #202 2026

ES Metlaoui
ES Metlaoui
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
2/1/2025League #202League #202 · Round 17Stade Municipal de Métlaoui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

ES Metlaoui43%
×Draw32%
Stade Tunisien25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Metlaoui
1.06
Stade Tunisien
0.72

ES Metlaoui creates 47% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 63 away

creates per match

ES Metlaoui
1.15
Stade Tunisien
0.83

allows per match

ES Metlaoui
0.62
Stade Tunisien
0.98

finishing

ES Metlaoui+0.00on par
Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Metlaoui ↓

Stade Tunisien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

ES Metlaoui or draw
75%
ES Metlaoui or Stade Tunisien
68%
Draw or Stade Tunisien
57%

Winning margin

ES Metlaoui wins by 2+
17%
Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ES Metlaoui 1+ goals
65%
ES Metlaoui 2+ goals
29%
ES Metlaoui 3+ goals
9%
Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
51%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
16%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ES Metlaoui (draw refunded)
64%
Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Metlaoui at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 47 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Metlaoui attack 1.15 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Stade Tunisien attack 0.83 + ES Metlaoui defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ES Metlaoui scores more
43%
level
32%
Stade Tunisien scores more
25%

ES Metlaoui at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ES Metlaoui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
A. Knaissi
48'
B. Mugisha
55'
Z. Berrima← S. Kadida
55'
N. Atoui← N. Atoui
67'
B. N. Sylla
67'
S. Lingazou← S. Lingazou
71'
W. Ouerghemmi← W. Ouerghemmi
78'
B. Hajji← B. Hajji
87'
C. Abdelmouhib
90+1'
M. Diame Pape← M. Diame Pape
ES
Stade
I. Ben Younes
Manager: I. Ben Younes
67'▲—←▼S. Lingazou
78'▲—←▼B. Hajji
90+1'▲—←▼M. Diame Pape
M. Kanzari
Manager: M. Kanzari
55'▲Z. Berrima←▼S. Kadida
55'▲—←▼N. Atoui
71'▲—←▼W. Ouerghemmi

League #202: ES Metlaoui 0–0 Stade Tunisien

ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien drew 0-0 in League #202 on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Métlaoui in Métlaoui.