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Stade Tunisien vs ES Metlaoui — Cup 2019

Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisienadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ES Metlaoui
ES Metlaoui
H. Khadraoui 79'
S. Khemissi 7'
H. Mastouri 45'
2/26/2023CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade Mustapha Ben Jannet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stade Tunisien56%
×Draw30%
ES Metlaoui14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Tunisien
1.25
ES Metlaoui
0.46

Stade Tunisien creates 172% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Stade Tunisien
1.50
ES Metlaoui
0.67

allows per match

Stade Tunisien
0.25
ES Metlaoui
1.00

finishing

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par
ES Metlaoui+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Tunisien ↓

ES Metlaoui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Stade Tunisien or draw
86%
Stade Tunisien or ES Metlaoui
70%
Draw or ES Metlaoui
44%

Winning margin

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
26%
ES Metlaoui wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
71%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
36%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
13%
ES Metlaoui 1+ goals
37%
ES Metlaoui 2+ goals
8%
ES Metlaoui 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
80%
ES Metlaoui (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Tunisien at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

ES Metlaoui away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Tunisien attack 1.50 + ES Metlaoui defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

ES Metlaoui attack 0.67 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stade Tunisien scores more
56%
level
30%
ES Metlaoui scores more
14%

Stade Tunisien at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
S. Khemissi
45'
H. Mastouri
79'
H. Khadraoui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Stade Tunisien 2–1 ES Metlaoui

Stade Tunisien beat ES Metlaoui 2-1 in Cup on February 26, 2023.

Goals: S. Khemissi (7'), H. Mastouri (45'), H. Khadraoui (79').

The match was played at Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet in Monastir.