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Stade Renard vs Dynamo de Douala — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
2/15/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 5Stade Municipal de Melong

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Stade Renard40%
×Draw29%
Dynamo de Douala31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.21
Dynamo de Douala
1.04

Stade Renard creates 16% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 38 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Dynamo de Douala
1.34

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Dynamo de Douala
1.13

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Dynamo de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
69%
Stade Renard or Dynamo de Douala
71%
Draw or Dynamo de Douala
60%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
17%
Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
70%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
34%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
12%
Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
65%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
28%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
56%
Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.34 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stade Renard scores more
40%
level
29%
Dynamo de Douala scores more
31%

Stade Renard at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Stade Renard 2–2 Dynamo de Douala

Stade Renard and Dynamo de Douala drew 2-2 in Elite One on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Melong in Melong.