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Dynamo de Douala vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
4/12/2024Elite OneElite One · Championship Round - 3Stade Mbappe Leppe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Dynamo de Douala43%
×Draw29%
Stade Renard28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.20
Stade Renard
0.91

Dynamo de Douala creates 32% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 96 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.33
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
0.93
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
72%
Dynamo de Douala or Stade Renard
71%
Draw or Stade Renard
57%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
19%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
70%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
34%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
12%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
60%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
23%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
60%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 42 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.33 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Dynamo de Douala defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
43%
level
29%
Stade Renard scores more
28%

Dynamo de Douala at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Dynamo de Douala 0–1 Stade Renard

Stade Renard beat Dynamo de Douala 1-0 in Elite One on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mbappe Leppe in Douala.