Stade Plabennec 0–6 Saint-Malo: Result & Stats

Stade Plabennec

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Saint-Malo

J. Curtius 83'

A. Vermet 74'

Z. Fdaouch 68', 53'

S. Valla 56'

S. Papin 12'

5/21/2022

League #67 · Group A - 29Stade de Kervéguen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stade Plabennec12%

×Draw15%

Saint-Malo73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade PlabennecExpected goals in this matchSaint-Malo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

3.00

Stade Plabennec

1.17

Saint-Malo

3.00

Saint-Malo creates 156% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

3.33

2.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Stade Plabennec

1.67

Saint-Malo

3.33

allows per match

Stade Plabennec

2.67

Saint-Malo

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Plabennec+0.00on par

Saint-Malo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Plabennec ↓

Saint-Malo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Stade Plabennec or draw

27%

Stade Plabennec or Saint-Malo

85%

Draw or Saint-Malo

88%

Winning margin

Stade Plabennec wins by 2+

4%

Saint-Malo wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Stade Plabennec 1+ goals

69%

Stade Plabennec 2+ goals

33%

Stade Plabennec 3+ goals

11%

Saint-Malo 1+ goals

95%

Saint-Malo 2+ goals

79%

Saint-Malo 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Stade Plabennec (draw refunded)

14%

Saint-Malo (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Plabennec at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Saint-Malo away — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Plabennec attack 1.67 + Saint-Malo defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Saint-Malo attack 3.33 + Stade Plabennec defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Stade Plabennec scores more

12%

level

15%

Saint-Malo scores more

73%

Saint-Malo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Saint-Malo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

46'

46'

53'

56'

68'

71'

73'

A. Vermet← Y. Hidasse

73'

A. Laraba← S. Valla

74'

A. Vermet

83'

J. Curtius

Stade

Saint-Malo

30

Yavorsky

27

Inzoudine

19

Cissé

4

⚽

Curtius

20

⚽2

Fdaouch

23

Gadji

33

▼

Hidasse

28

Debreux

35

⚽

Papin

10

⚽

▼

Valla

11

▼

50

5

8

24

23

6

18

27

▼

Abasq

7

▼

Pellen

9

Gerbeaud

10

Guegan

Manager: B. Maligorne

46'▲T. Quéméré←▼Y. Abasq

71'▲Y. Kujabi←▼N. Pellen

Stade Plabennec substitutes

17Quéméré14Kujabi30Laurent26Guillou15Mourdi

Manager: A. El Kouraichi

46'▲D. Gassama←▼T. Iva

73'▲A. Vermet←▼Y. Hidasse

73'▲A. Laraba←▼S. Valla

Saint-Malo substitutes

17Gassama7Vermet13Laraba1Louis21Portejoie