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Stade Plabennec vs Saint-Malo — Coupe de France 2018

Stade Plabennec
Stade Plabennec
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saint-Malo
Saint-Malo
11/13/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade de Kervéguen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stade Plabennec38%
×Draw28%
Saint-Malo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Plabennec
1.25
Saint-Malo
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Stade Plabennec
0.83
Saint-Malo
1.33

allows per match

Stade Plabennec
1.00
Saint-Malo
1.67

finishing

Stade Plabennec+0.00on par
Saint-Malo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Plabennec ↓

Saint-Malo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stade Plabennec or draw
66%
Stade Plabennec or Saint-Malo
72%
Draw or Saint-Malo
62%

Winning margin

Stade Plabennec wins by 2+
17%
Saint-Malo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stade Plabennec 1+ goals
71%
Stade Plabennec 2+ goals
36%
Stade Plabennec 3+ goals
13%
Saint-Malo 1+ goals
69%
Saint-Malo 2+ goals
33%
Saint-Malo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stade Plabennec (draw refunded)
53%
Saint-Malo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Plabennec at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Saint-Malo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Plabennec attack 0.83 + Saint-Malo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Saint-Malo attack 1.33 + Stade Plabennec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stade Plabennec scores more
38%
level
28%
Saint-Malo scores more
34%

Stade Plabennec at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stade Plabennec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Stade Plabennec 0–0 Saint-Malo

Stade Plabennec and Saint-Malo drew 0-0 in Coupe de France on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Kervéguen in Plabennec.