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Stade Payerne vs Köniz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Stade Payerne
Stade Payerne
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Köniz
Köniz
3/2/20251. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stade Payerne50%
×Draw23%
Köniz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Payerne
1.83
Köniz
1.30

Stade Payerne creates 41% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stade Payerne
1.07
Köniz
1.07

allows per match

Stade Payerne
1.53
Köniz
2.60

finishing

Stade Payerne+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Payerne ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stade Payerne or draw
73%
Stade Payerne or Köniz
77%
Draw or Köniz
50%

Winning margin

Stade Payerne wins by 2+
28%
Köniz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stade Payerne 1+ goals
84%
Stade Payerne 2+ goals
54%
Stade Payerne 3+ goals
28%
Köniz 1+ goals
73%
Köniz 2+ goals
37%
Köniz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stade Payerne (draw refunded)
65%
Köniz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Payerne at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Payerne attack 1.07 + Köniz defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.83

Köniz attack 1.07 + Stade Payerne defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stade Payerne scores more
50%
level
23%
Köniz scores more
27%

Stade Payerne at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stade Payerne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Stade Payerne 0–1 Köniz

Köniz beat Stade Payerne 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Payerne.