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Köniz vs Stade Payerne — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Köniz
Köniz
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Stade Payerne
Stade Payerne
8/17/20241. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Köniz27%
×Draw22%
Stade Payerne51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.35
Stade Payerne
1.92

Stade Payerne creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.07
Stade Payerne
1.77

allows per match

Köniz
2.07
Stade Payerne
1.63

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Stade Payerne+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Stade Payerne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
49%
Köniz or Stade Payerne
78%
Draw or Stade Payerne
73%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
12%
Stade Payerne wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
74%
Köniz 2+ goals
39%
Köniz 3+ goals
15%
Stade Payerne 1+ goals
85%
Stade Payerne 2+ goals
57%
Stade Payerne 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
35%
Stade Payerne (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Stade Payerne away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.07 + Stade Payerne defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Stade Payerne attack 1.77 + Köniz defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Köniz scores more
27%
level
22%
Stade Payerne scores more
51%

Stade Payerne at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stade Payerne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Köniz 2–4 Stade Payerne

Stade Payerne beat Köniz 4-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut in Liebefeld.