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Stade Nyonnais vs Köniz — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Stade Nyonnais
Stade Nyonnais
CANC
00:00
Köniz
Köniz
3/1/20201. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 18Centre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Stade Nyonnais64%
×Draw18%
Köniz18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Nyonnais
2.56
Köniz
1.31

Stade Nyonnais creates 95% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 20 away

creates per match

Stade Nyonnais
2.27
Köniz
1.20

allows per match

Stade Nyonnais
1.42
Köniz
2.85

finishing

Stade Nyonnais+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Nyonnais ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Stade Nyonnais or draw
82%
Stade Nyonnais or Köniz
82%
Draw or Köniz
36%

Winning margin

Stade Nyonnais wins by 2+
43%
Köniz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade Nyonnais 1+ goals
92%
Stade Nyonnais 2+ goals
72%
Stade Nyonnais 3+ goals
46%
Köniz 1+ goals
73%
Köniz 2+ goals
38%
Köniz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stade Nyonnais (draw refunded)
78%
Köniz (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Nyonnais at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Nyonnais attack 2.27 + Köniz defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.56

Köniz attack 1.20 + Stade Nyonnais defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Stade Nyonnais scores more
64%
level
18%
Köniz scores more
18%

Stade Nyonnais at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Stade Nyonnais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stade Nyonnais vs Köniz — Match Preview

Stade Nyonnais face Köniz on March 1, 2020 in this 1. Liga Promotion fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stade Nyonnais host Köniz at Centre sportif de Colovray.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.