Köniz 3–2 Stade Nyonnais: Result & Stats

Köniz

FT

3 – 2

Stade Nyonnais

8/10/2019

1. Liga Promotion · Round 3Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Köniz25%

×Draw23%

Stade Nyonnais52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KönizExpected goals in this matchStade Nyonnais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.83

Köniz

1.21

Stade Nyonnais

1.83

Stade Nyonnais creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

1.16

creates per match

1.93

1.74

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Köniz

1.16

Stade Nyonnais

1.93

allows per match

Köniz

1.74

Stade Nyonnais

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par

Stade Nyonnais+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Stade Nyonnais →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Köniz or draw

48%

Köniz or Stade Nyonnais

77%

Draw or Stade Nyonnais

75%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+

10%

Stade Nyonnais wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals

70%

Köniz 2+ goals

34%

Köniz 3+ goals

12%

Stade Nyonnais 1+ goals

84%

Stade Nyonnais 2+ goals

54%

Stade Nyonnais 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)

33%

Stade Nyonnais (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Stade Nyonnais away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.16 + Stade Nyonnais defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Stade Nyonnais attack 1.93 + Köniz defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Köniz scores more

25%

level

23%

Stade Nyonnais scores more

52%

Stade Nyonnais at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stade Nyonnais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff