Stade Nyonnais 0–1 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Stade Nyonnais

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Basel 1893

9/15/2024

Schweizer Cup · 2nd RoundCentre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stade Nyonnais6%

×Draw12%

FC Basel 189382%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade NyonnaisExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

2.95

Stade Nyonnais

0.70

FC Basel 1893

2.95

FC Basel 1893 creates 321% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

0.40

creates per match

3.89

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Stade Nyonnais

0.40

FC Basel 1893

3.89

allows per match

Stade Nyonnais

2.00

FC Basel 1893

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Nyonnais+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Nyonnais ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–212%

0–311%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Stade Nyonnais or draw

18%

Stade Nyonnais or FC Basel 1893

88%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

94%

Winning margin

Stade Nyonnais wins by 2+

2%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

63%

Team goals

Stade Nyonnais 1+ goals

50%

Stade Nyonnais 2+ goals

16%

Stade Nyonnais 3+ goals

3%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

95%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

79%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Stade Nyonnais (draw refunded)

7%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Nyonnais at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Nyonnais attack 0.40 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

FC Basel 1893 attack 3.89 + Stade Nyonnais defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Stade Nyonnais scores more

6%

level

12%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

82%

FC Basel 1893 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff