FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Nyonnais

FC Basel 1893

CANC

12:00

Stade Nyonnais

7/12/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Basel 189347%

×Draw20%

Stade Nyonnais33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchStade Nyonnais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.85

FC Basel 1893

2.24

Stade Nyonnais

1.85

FC Basel 1893 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

2.23

creates per match

1.25

2.46

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

2.23

Stade Nyonnais

1.25

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

2.46

Stade Nyonnais

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Stade Nyonnais+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Stade Nyonnais →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

67%

FC Basel 1893 or Stade Nyonnais

80%

Draw or Stade Nyonnais

53%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

28%

Stade Nyonnais wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

89%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

65%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

38%

Stade Nyonnais 1+ goals

84%

Stade Nyonnais 2+ goals

55%

Stade Nyonnais 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

59%

Stade Nyonnais (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Stade Nyonnais away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 2.23 + Stade Nyonnais defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.24

Stade Nyonnais attack 1.25 + FC Basel 1893 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

47%

level

20%

Stade Nyonnais scores more

33%

FC Basel 1893 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff