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Stade Nyonnais vs Bulle — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Stade Nyonnais
Stade Nyonnais
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bulle
Bulle
11/19/20221. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 17Centre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Stade Nyonnais52%
×Draw22%
Bulle27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Nyonnais
2.02
Bulle
1.40

Stade Nyonnais creates 44% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stade Nyonnais
2.27
Bulle
1.37

allows per match

Stade Nyonnais
1.42
Bulle
1.76

finishing

Stade Nyonnais+0.00on par
Bulle+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Nyonnais ↓

Bulle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Stade Nyonnais or draw
73%
Stade Nyonnais or Bulle
78%
Draw or Bulle
48%

Winning margin

Stade Nyonnais wins by 2+
30%
Bulle wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stade Nyonnais 1+ goals
87%
Stade Nyonnais 2+ goals
60%
Stade Nyonnais 3+ goals
33%
Bulle 1+ goals
75%
Bulle 2+ goals
41%
Bulle 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stade Nyonnais (draw refunded)
66%
Bulle (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Nyonnais at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

Bulle away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Nyonnais attack 2.27 + Bulle defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Bulle attack 1.37 + Stade Nyonnais defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stade Nyonnais scores more
52%
level
22%
Bulle scores more
27%

Stade Nyonnais at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stade Nyonnais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Nyonnais vs Bulle

Bulle beat Stade Nyonnais 1-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Centre sportif de Colovray in Nyon.