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Stade Migoveen vs Stade Mandji — Championnat D1 2022

Stade Migoveen
Stade Migoveen
ABD
14:30
Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
6/20/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stade Migoveen31%
×Draw33%
Stade Mandji36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Migoveen
0.84
Stade Mandji
0.93

Stade Mandji creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Stade Migoveen
0.85
Stade Mandji
0.94

allows per match

Stade Migoveen
0.92
Stade Mandji
0.84

finishing

Stade Migoveen+0.00on par
Stade Mandji+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Migoveen ↓

Stade Mandji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Stade Migoveen or draw
64%
Stade Migoveen or Stade Mandji
67%
Draw or Stade Mandji
69%

Winning margin

Stade Migoveen wins by 2+
10%
Stade Mandji wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stade Migoveen 1+ goals
57%
Stade Migoveen 2+ goals
21%
Stade Migoveen 3+ goals
5%
Stade Mandji 1+ goals
61%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
24%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade Migoveen (draw refunded)
46%
Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Migoveen at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Stade Mandji away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Migoveen attack 0.85 + Stade Mandji defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Stade Mandji attack 0.94 + Stade Migoveen defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Stade Migoveen scores more
31%
level
33%
Stade Mandji scores more
36%

Stade Mandji at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stade Migoveen host Stade Mandji

June 20, 2026: Stade Migoveen take on Stade Mandji in Championnat D1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.