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Stade Mandji vs Stade Migoveen — Championnat D1 2022

Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Stade Migoveen
Stade Migoveen
5/5/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stade Mandji57%
×Draw26%
Stade Migoveen17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Mandji
1.52
Stade Migoveen
0.69

Stade Mandji creates 120% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stade Mandji
1.73
Stade Migoveen
0.77

allows per match

Stade Mandji
0.61
Stade Migoveen
1.31

finishing

Stade Mandji+0.00on par
Stade Migoveen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Mandji ↓

Stade Migoveen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stade Mandji or draw
83%
Stade Mandji or Stade Migoveen
74%
Draw or Stade Migoveen
43%

Winning margin

Stade Mandji wins by 2+
30%
Stade Migoveen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stade Mandji 1+ goals
78%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
45%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
20%
Stade Migoveen 1+ goals
50%
Stade Migoveen 2+ goals
15%
Stade Migoveen 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
77%
Stade Migoveen (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Mandji at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

Stade Migoveen away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Mandji attack 1.73 + Stade Migoveen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stade Migoveen attack 0.77 + Stade Mandji defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Stade Mandji scores more
57%
level
26%
Stade Migoveen scores more
17%

Stade Mandji at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Mandji vs Stade Migoveen

Stade Mandji beat Stade Migoveen 5-0 in Championnat D1 on May 5, 2026.