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Stade Migoveen vs Cercle Mbéri — Championnat D1 2022

Stade Migoveen
Stade Migoveen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
5/26/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stade Migoveen25%
×Draw31%
Cercle Mbéri43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Migoveen
0.77
Cercle Mbéri
1.11

Cercle Mbéri creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Stade Migoveen
0.85
Cercle Mbéri
1.30

allows per match

Stade Migoveen
0.92
Cercle Mbéri
0.70

finishing

Stade Migoveen+0.00on par
Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Migoveen ↓

Cercle Mbéri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Migoveen or draw
57%
Stade Migoveen or Cercle Mbéri
69%
Draw or Cercle Mbéri
75%

Winning margin

Stade Migoveen wins by 2+
8%
Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stade Migoveen 1+ goals
54%
Stade Migoveen 2+ goals
18%
Stade Migoveen 3+ goals
4%
Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
67%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
30%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stade Migoveen (draw refunded)
37%
Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Migoveen at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Cercle Mbéri away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Migoveen attack 0.85 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.30 + Stade Migoveen defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stade Migoveen scores more
25%
level
31%
Cercle Mbéri scores more
43%

Cercle Mbéri at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Stade Migoveen 0–0 Cercle Mbéri

Stade Migoveen and Cercle Mbéri drew 0-0 in Championnat D1 on May 26, 2026.