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Cercle Mbéri vs Stade Migoveen — Championnat D1 2022

Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Migoveen
Stade Migoveen
3/28/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cercle Mbéri47%
×Draw30%
Stade Migoveen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Mbéri
1.19
Stade Migoveen
0.72

Cercle Mbéri creates 65% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cercle Mbéri
1.06
Stade Migoveen
0.77

allows per match

Cercle Mbéri
0.67
Stade Migoveen
1.31

finishing

Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par
Stade Migoveen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Mbéri ↓

Stade Migoveen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cercle Mbéri or draw
78%
Cercle Mbéri or Stade Migoveen
70%
Draw or Stade Migoveen
53%

Winning margin

Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
21%
Stade Migoveen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
70%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
33%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
12%
Stade Migoveen 1+ goals
51%
Stade Migoveen 2+ goals
16%
Stade Migoveen 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
68%
Stade Migoveen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Mbéri at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches

Stade Migoveen away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.06 + Stade Migoveen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Stade Migoveen attack 0.77 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cercle Mbéri scores more
47%
level
30%
Stade Migoveen scores more
22%

Cercle Mbéri at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Cercle Mbéri 0–0 Stade Migoveen

Cercle Mbéri and Stade Migoveen drew 0-0 in Championnat D1 on March 28, 2026.