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Stade Marocain vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola 2 2025

Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
10/21/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 7Stade Ahmed Achhoud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stade Marocain47%
×Draw27%
Olympique Khouribga26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Marocain
1.42
Olympique Khouribga
0.99

Stade Marocain creates 43% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 45 away

creates per match

Stade Marocain
1.51
Olympique Khouribga
1.00

allows per match

Stade Marocain
0.98
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

Stade Marocain+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Marocain ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stade Marocain or draw
74%
Stade Marocain or Olympique Khouribga
73%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
53%

Winning margin

Stade Marocain wins by 2+
23%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stade Marocain 1+ goals
76%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
41%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
17%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
63%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
26%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
64%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Marocain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Marocain attack 1.51 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.00 + Stade Marocain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stade Marocain scores more
47%
level
27%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
26%

Stade Marocain at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stade Marocain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Marocain vs Olympique Khouribga

Stade Marocain beat Olympique Khouribga 1-0 in Botola 2 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Achhoud in Rabat.