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Olympique Khouribga vs Stade Marocain — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
2 – 1
Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
4/26/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 19Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Olympique Khouribga44%
×Draw30%
Stade Marocain26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.16
Stade Marocain
0.82

Olympique Khouribga creates 41% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 90 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.11
Stade Marocain
0.81

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.84
Stade Marocain
1.20

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Stade Marocain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
74%
Olympique Khouribga or Stade Marocain
70%
Draw or Stade Marocain
56%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
19%
Stade Marocain wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
69%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
32%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
11%
Stade Marocain 1+ goals
56%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
20%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
63%
Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

Stade Marocain away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.11 + Stade Marocain defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Stade Marocain attack 0.81 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
44%
level
30%
Stade Marocain scores more
26%

Olympique Khouribga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Stade Marocain

Olympique Khouribga beat Stade Marocain 2-1 in Botola 2 on April 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.