Stade Marocain 4–1 Kawkab Marrakech: Result & Stats

Stade Marocain

FT

4 – 1

Kawkab Marrakech

11/4/2023

Botola 2 · Round 9Stade Ahmed Achhoud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Stade Marocain45%

×Draw29%

Kawkab Marrakech26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade MarocainExpected goals in this matchKawkab Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.89

Stade Marocain

1.25

Kawkab Marrakech

0.89

Stade Marocain creates 40% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

1.51

creates per match

0.79

0.98

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Stade Marocain

1.51

Kawkab Marrakech

0.79

allows per match

Stade Marocain

0.98

Kawkab Marrakech

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Marocain ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Stade Marocain or draw

74%

Stade Marocain or Kawkab Marrakech

71%

Draw or Kawkab Marrakech

55%

Winning margin

Stade Marocain wins by 2+

20%

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stade Marocain 1+ goals

71%

Stade Marocain 2+ goals

36%

Stade Marocain 3+ goals

13%

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

59%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

22%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)

63%

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Marocain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Marocain attack 1.51 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.79 + Stade Marocain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stade Marocain scores more

45%

level

29%

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

26%

Stade Marocain at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stade Marocain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff