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Kawkab Marrakech vs Stade Marocain — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
3/15/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 21Stade Sidi-Youssef-Ben-Ali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech46%
×Draw28%
Stade Marocain25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.30
Stade Marocain
0.88

Kawkab Marrakech creates 48% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 90 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
Stade Marocain
0.81

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
Stade Marocain
1.20

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Stade Marocain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
75%
Kawkab Marrakech or Stade Marocain
72%
Draw or Stade Marocain
54%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
21%
Stade Marocain wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
73%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
37%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
14%
Stade Marocain 1+ goals
59%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
22%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
65%
Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Stade Marocain away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + Stade Marocain defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Stade Marocain attack 0.81 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
46%
level
28%
Stade Marocain scores more
25%

Kawkab Marrakech at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs Stade Marocain

Kawkab Marrakech beat Stade Marocain 3-0 in Botola 2 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Sidi-Youssef-Ben-Ali in Marrakech.