Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stade Marocain vs CODM Meknès — Botola 2 2025

Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
5/31/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 28Stade Ahmed Achhoud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stade Marocain41%
×Draw29%
CODM Meknès30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Marocain
1.19
CODM Meknès
0.96

Stade Marocain creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stade Marocain
1.51
CODM Meknès
0.93

allows per match

Stade Marocain
0.98
CODM Meknès
0.87

finishing

Stade Marocain+0.00on par
CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Marocain ↓

CODM Meknès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stade Marocain or draw
70%
Stade Marocain or CODM Meknès
71%
Draw or CODM Meknès
59%

Winning margin

Stade Marocain wins by 2+
18%
CODM Meknès wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stade Marocain 1+ goals
70%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
33%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
12%
CODM Meknès 1+ goals
62%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
25%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
58%
CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Marocain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

CODM Meknès away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Marocain attack 1.51 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

CODM Meknès attack 0.93 + Stade Marocain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stade Marocain scores more
41%
level
29%
CODM Meknès scores more
30%

Stade Marocain at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stade Marocain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Stade Marocain 2–0 CODM Meknès

Stade Marocain beat CODM Meknès 2-0 in Botola 2 on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Achhoud in Rabat.