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CODM Meknès vs Stade Marocain — Botola 2 2025

CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
12/3/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 13Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CODM Meknès50%
×Draw27%
Stade Marocain23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CODM Meknès
1.40
Stade Marocain
0.84

CODM Meknès creates 67% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

creates per match

CODM Meknès
1.60
Stade Marocain
0.81

allows per match

CODM Meknès
0.87
Stade Marocain
1.20

finishing

CODM Meknès+0.00on par
Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CODM Meknès ↓

Stade Marocain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CODM Meknès or draw
77%
CODM Meknès or Stade Marocain
73%
Draw or Stade Marocain
50%

Winning margin

CODM Meknès wins by 2+
24%
Stade Marocain wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CODM Meknès 1+ goals
75%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
41%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
17%
Stade Marocain 1+ goals
57%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
21%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
69%
Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CODM Meknès at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Stade Marocain away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CODM Meknès attack 1.60 + Stade Marocain defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stade Marocain attack 0.81 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CODM Meknès scores more
50%
level
27%
Stade Marocain scores more
23%

CODM Meknès at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CODM Meknès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CODM Meknès vs Stade Marocain

CODM Meknès beat Stade Marocain 2-0 in Botola 2 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.