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Stade Marocain vs Chabab Ben Guerir — Botola 2 2025

Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
3/3/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 19Stade Ahmed Achhoud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Stade Marocain47%
×Draw28%
Chabab Ben Guerir25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Marocain
1.36
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.91

Stade Marocain creates 49% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

creates per match

Stade Marocain
1.51
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.83

allows per match

Stade Marocain
0.98
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.21

finishing

Stade Marocain+0.00on par
Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Marocain ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stade Marocain or draw
75%
Stade Marocain or Chabab Ben Guerir
72%
Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir
53%

Winning margin

Stade Marocain wins by 2+
22%
Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stade Marocain 1+ goals
74%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
39%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
16%
Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
60%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
23%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
65%
Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Marocain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Marocain attack 1.51 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.83 + Stade Marocain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stade Marocain scores more
47%
level
28%
Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
25%

Stade Marocain at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stade Marocain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Marocain vs Chabab Ben Guerir

Stade Marocain and Chabab Ben Guerir drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Achhoud in Rabat.