Chabab Ben Guerir 0–0 Stade Marocain

Chabab Ben Guerir

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Marocain

1/8/2025

Botola 2 · Round 13Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir42%

×Draw32%

Stade Marocain26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab Ben GuerirExpected goals in this matchStade Marocain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.78

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.06

Stade Marocain

0.78

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 36% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 90 away

0.93

creates per match

0.81

0.74

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.93

Stade Marocain

0.81

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.74

Stade Marocain

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Stade Marocain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw

74%

Chabab Ben Guerir or Stade Marocain

68%

Draw or Stade Marocain

58%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+

17%

Stade Marocain wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals

65%

Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals

29%

Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals

9%

Stade Marocain 1+ goals

54%

Stade Marocain 2+ goals

18%

Stade Marocain 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)

61%

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 120 matches

Stade Marocain away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.93 + Stade Marocain defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Stade Marocain attack 0.81 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more

42%

level

32%

Stade Marocain scores more

26%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff