Stade Mandji 1–1 FC 105: Result & Stats

Stade Mandji

FT

1 – 1

FC 105

2/22/2023

Championnat D1 · Round 5Stade Pierre Claver Divounguy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Stade Mandji46%

×Draw28%

FC 10526%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade MandjiExpected goals in this matchFC 105

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.89

Stade Mandji

1.30

FC 105

0.89

Stade Mandji creates 46% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

1.73

creates per match

1.16

0.61

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Stade Mandji

1.73

FC 105

1.16

allows per match

Stade Mandji

0.61

FC 105

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Mandji+0.00on par

FC 105+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Mandji ↓

FC 105 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Stade Mandji or draw

74%

Stade Mandji or FC 105

72%

Draw or FC 105

54%

Winning margin

Stade Mandji wins by 2+

21%

FC 105 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stade Mandji 1+ goals

73%

Stade Mandji 2+ goals

37%

Stade Mandji 3+ goals

14%

FC 105 1+ goals

59%

FC 105 2+ goals

22%

FC 105 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Stade Mandji (draw refunded)

64%

FC 105 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Mandji at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

FC 105 away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Mandji attack 1.73 + FC 105 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.30

FC 105 attack 1.16 + Stade Mandji defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stade Mandji scores more

46%

level

28%

FC 105 scores more

26%

Stade Mandji at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff