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FC 105 vs Stade Mandji — Championnat D1 2022

FC 105
FC 105
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
12/21/2024Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 5Stade Idriss Ngari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC 10534%
×Draw28%
Stade Mandji37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 105
1.13
Stade Mandji
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

FC 105
1.41
Stade Mandji
0.94

allows per match

FC 105
1.44
Stade Mandji
0.84

finishing

FC 105+0.00on par
Stade Mandji+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 105 ↓

Stade Mandji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC 105 or draw
63%
FC 105 or Stade Mandji
72%
Draw or Stade Mandji
66%

Winning margin

FC 105 wins by 2+
14%
Stade Mandji wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC 105 1+ goals
68%
FC 105 2+ goals
31%
FC 105 3+ goals
11%
Stade Mandji 1+ goals
70%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
33%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC 105 (draw refunded)
48%
Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 105 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Stade Mandji away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 105 attack 1.41 + Stade Mandji defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Stade Mandji attack 0.94 + FC 105 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC 105 scores more
34%
level
28%
Stade Mandji scores more
37%

Stade Mandji at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC 105 vs Stade Mandji

Stade Mandji beat FC 105 1-0 in Championnat D1 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Idriss Ngari in Owendo.