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Stade Mandji vs Bitam — Championnat D1 2022

Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
FT
3 – 1
Bitam
Bitam
11/30/2024Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 2Stade Pierre Claver Divounguy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Stade Mandji54%
×Draw25%
Bitam21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Mandji
1.60
Bitam
0.89

Stade Mandji creates 80% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

creates per match

Stade Mandji
1.73
Bitam
1.16

allows per match

Stade Mandji
0.61
Bitam
1.48

finishing

Stade Mandji+0.00on par
Bitam+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Mandji ↓

Bitam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stade Mandji or draw
79%
Stade Mandji or Bitam
75%
Draw or Bitam
46%

Winning margin

Stade Mandji wins by 2+
29%
Bitam wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade Mandji 1+ goals
80%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
47%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
22%
Bitam 1+ goals
59%
Bitam 2+ goals
22%
Bitam 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
72%
Bitam (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Mandji at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

Bitam away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Mandji attack 1.73 + Bitam defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bitam attack 1.16 + Stade Mandji defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stade Mandji scores more
54%
level
25%
Bitam scores more
21%

Stade Mandji at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Stade Mandji 3–1 Bitam

Stade Mandji beat Bitam 3-1 in Championnat D1 on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Pierre Claver Divounguy in Port-Gentil.