Stade Malien Bamako 1–0 Réal Bamako: Result & Stats

Stade Malien Bamako

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Réal Bamako

5/19/2024

Première Division · Round 28Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Stade Malien Bamako38%

×Draw33%

Réal Bamako29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Malien BamakoExpected goals in this matchRéal Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.83

Stade Malien Bamako

0.99

Réal Bamako

0.83

Stade Malien Bamako creates 19% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 99 away

1.24

creates per match

1.15

0.51

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Stade Malien Bamako

1.24

Réal Bamako

1.15

allows per match

Stade Malien Bamako

0.51

Réal Bamako

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Malien Bamako ↓

Réal Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Stade Malien Bamako or draw

71%

Stade Malien Bamako or Réal Bamako

67%

Draw or Réal Bamako

62%

Winning margin

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+

14%

Réal Bamako wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals

63%

Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals

26%

Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals

8%

Réal Bamako 1+ goals

56%

Réal Bamako 2+ goals

20%

Réal Bamako 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)

56%

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Malien Bamako at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.51 · 97 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.24 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.99

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stade Malien Bamako scores more

38%

level

33%

Réal Bamako scores more

29%

Stade Malien Bamako at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff