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Réal Bamako vs Stade Malien Bamako — Première Division 2019

Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
12/10/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Réal Bamako32%
×Draw31%
Stade Malien Bamako37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Bamako
0.96
Stade Malien Bamako
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 97 away

creates per match

Réal Bamako
1.31
Stade Malien Bamako
1.38

allows per match

Réal Bamako
0.70
Stade Malien Bamako
0.60

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par
Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw
63%
Réal Bamako or Stade Malien Bamako
69%
Draw or Stade Malien Bamako
68%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+
12%
Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals
62%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
25%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
7%
Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
65%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
28%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
47%
Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.96

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.38 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Réal Bamako scores more
32%
level
31%
Stade Malien Bamako scores more
37%

Stade Malien Bamako at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Réal Bamako 1–1 Stade Malien Bamako

Réal Bamako and Stade Malien Bamako drew 1-1 in Première Division on December 10, 2025.