Stade Malien Bamako 0–2 Mali Coura: Result & Stats

Stade Malien Bamako

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mali Coura

1/17/2026

Première Division · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stade Malien Bamako47%

×Draw31%

Mali Coura22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Malien BamakoExpected goals in this matchMali Coura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.68

Stade Malien Bamako

1.16

Mali Coura

0.68

Stade Malien Bamako creates 71% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 13 away

1.24

creates per match

0.85

0.51

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Stade Malien Bamako

1.24

Mali Coura

0.85

allows per match

Stade Malien Bamako

0.51

Mali Coura

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Mali Coura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Malien Bamako ↓

Mali Coura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Stade Malien Bamako or draw

78%

Stade Malien Bamako or Mali Coura

69%

Draw or Mali Coura

53%

Winning margin

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+

21%

Mali Coura wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals

69%

Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals

32%

Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals

11%

Mali Coura 1+ goals

49%

Mali Coura 2+ goals

15%

Mali Coura 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)

69%

Mali Coura (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Malien Bamako at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.51 · 97 matches

Mali Coura away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.24 + Mali Coura defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mali Coura attack 0.85 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stade Malien Bamako scores more

47%

level

31%

Mali Coura scores more

22%

Stade Malien Bamako at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff