Mali Coura 1–1 Stade Malien Bamako: Result & Stats

Mali Coura

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stade Malien Bamako

5/24/2026

Première Division · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mali Coura18%

×Draw28%

Stade Malien Bamako53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mali CouraExpected goals in this matchStade Malien Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

1.34

Mali Coura

0.65

Stade Malien Bamako

1.34

Stade Malien Bamako creates 106% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 97 away

0.69

creates per match

1.38

1.31

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Mali Coura

0.69

Stade Malien Bamako

1.38

allows per match

Mali Coura

1.31

Stade Malien Bamako

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mali Coura+0.00on par

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali Coura ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–118%

0–212%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mali Coura or draw

47%

Mali Coura or Stade Malien Bamako

72%

Draw or Stade Malien Bamako

82%

Winning margin

Mali Coura wins by 2+

5%

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Mali Coura 1+ goals

48%

Mali Coura 2+ goals

14%

Mali Coura 3+ goals

3%

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals

74%

Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals

39%

Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mali Coura (draw refunded)

25%

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali Coura at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali Coura attack 0.69 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.65

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.38 + Mali Coura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mali Coura scores more

18%

level

28%

Stade Malien Bamako scores more

53%

Stade Malien Bamako at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff