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Stade Malien Bamako vs Derby Academie — Première Division 2019

Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Derby Academie
Derby Academie
12/27/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stade Malien Bamako46%
×Draw34%
Derby Academie21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Malien Bamako
1.04
Derby Academie
0.60

Stade Malien Bamako creates 73% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stade Malien Bamako
1.24
Derby Academie
0.69

allows per match

Stade Malien Bamako
0.51
Derby Academie
0.85

finishing

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par
Derby Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Malien Bamako ↓

Derby Academie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Stade Malien Bamako or draw
79%
Stade Malien Bamako or Derby Academie
66%
Draw or Derby Academie
54%

Winning margin

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
18%
Derby Academie wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
65%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
28%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
9%
Derby Academie 1+ goals
45%
Derby Academie 2+ goals
12%
Derby Academie 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
69%
Derby Academie (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Malien Bamako at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.51 · 97 matches

Derby Academie away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.24 + Derby Academie defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Derby Academie attack 0.69 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stade Malien Bamako scores more
46%
level
34%
Derby Academie scores more
21%

Stade Malien Bamako at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Stade Malien Bamako 3–0 Derby Academie

Stade Malien Bamako beat Derby Academie 3-0 in Première Division on December 27, 2025.