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Derby Academie vs Stade Malien Bamako — Première Division 2019

Derby Academie
Derby Academie
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
5/2/2026Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Derby Academie23%
×Draw32%
Stade Malien Bamako45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby Academie
0.69
Stade Malien Bamako
1.11

Stade Malien Bamako creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 97 away

creates per match

Derby Academie
0.77
Stade Malien Bamako
1.38

allows per match

Derby Academie
0.85
Stade Malien Bamako
0.60

finishing

Derby Academie+0.00on par
Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby Academie ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Derby Academie or draw
55%
Derby Academie or Stade Malien Bamako
68%
Draw or Stade Malien Bamako
77%

Winning margin

Derby Academie wins by 2+
6%
Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Derby Academie 1+ goals
50%
Derby Academie 2+ goals
15%
Derby Academie 3+ goals
3%
Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
67%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
30%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Derby Academie (draw refunded)
33%
Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby Academie at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby Academie attack 0.77 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.69

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.38 + Derby Academie defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Derby Academie scores more
23%
level
32%
Stade Malien Bamako scores more
45%

Stade Malien Bamako at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Derby Academie 0–0 Stade Malien Bamako

Derby Academie and Stade Malien Bamako drew 0-0 in Première Division on May 2, 2026.