Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–0 Grasshoppers

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Grasshoppers

V. Tritten 90'

L. Nomel 51'

4/18/2026

Schweizer Cup · Semi-finalsStade Olympique de la Pontaise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy32%

×Draw30%

Grasshoppers38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Lausanne-OuchyExpected goals in this matchGrasshoppers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.13

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.00

Grasshoppers

1.13

Grasshoppers creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.25

Grasshoppers

1.25

allows per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.00

Grasshoppers

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Grasshoppers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy ↓

Grasshoppers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw

62%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or Grasshoppers

70%

Draw or Grasshoppers

68%

Winning margin

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+

12%

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals

63%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals

26%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals

8%

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

68%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

31%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)

45%

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Grasshoppers away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.25 + Grasshoppers defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Grasshoppers attack 1.25 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more

32%

level

30%

Grasshoppers scores more

38%

Grasshoppers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

L. Nomel↳ J. Nkama

59'

H. Imourane← A. Abrashi

59'

F. Tsimba← S. Krasniqi

71'

S. Diarrassouba← T. Meyer

74'

H. Lukembila← B. Conus

75'

77'

83'

86'

87'

Lee Young-Jun←

87'

D. Paloschi← S. Marques

88'

L. Socka Bongue← M. Sartoretti

89'

E. Akichi← J. Nkama

89'

N. Garcia← L. Nomel

90+5'

B. Malula← V. Tritten

90'

V. Tritten

Stade

Grasshoppers

71

Hammel

52

▼

20

27

34

6

▼

Abrashi

54

▼

Krasniqi

14

Zvonarek

8

▼

10

99

19

28

34

22

3

▼

Conus

88

Lusuena

77

⚽

▼

Tritten

25

A

▼

Nkama

13

Bah

11

▼

Sartorett

7

⚽

▼

Nomel

Manager: Dalibor Stevanovic

74'▲H. Lukembila←▼B. Conus

88'▲L. Socka Bongue←▼M. Sartoretti

89'▲E. Akichi←▼J. Nkama

89'▲N. Garcia←▼L. Nomel

90+5'▲B. Malula←▼V. Tritten

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy substitutes

12Noverraz24Akichi8Fargues30Sutter71Malula26Bongue43Oliveira10Garcia44Lukembila

Manager: Gernot Messner

59'▲H. Imourane←▼A. Abrashi

59'▲F. Tsimba←▼S. Krasniqi

71'▲S. Diarrassouba←▼T. Meyer

87'▲Lee Young-Jun←▼—

87'▲D. Paloschi←▼S. Marques

Grasshoppers substitutes

1Glaus11Diarrassouba18Young-Jun73Paloschi16Mantini31Ullmann5Imourane19Tsimba4Mikulic